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　　Quánqiú chǎnliàng fàng huǎn, ōuméng réng wéi zhǔyào chǎnxiāo qū shēngwù ránliào fēn wéi liǎng lèi: Dì yī lèi shì zhǐ jīyú liáng shi zuòwù huò zhíwùyóu shēngchǎn de shēngwù ránliào, bāokuò yòng zhíwùyóu shēngchǎn de shēngwù cháiyóu hé yòng yùmǐ jí gānzhè shēngchǎn de shēngwù yǐchún; dì èr lèi de yuánliào zhǔyào shi fēi liáng zuòwù, jí dòngwùyóu jí fèiqì shíyòng yóu shēngchǎn de shēngwù cháiyóu hé yǐ jiēgǎn, kūcǎo, mùxiè děng fèiqì wù shēngchǎn de xiānwéi sù yǐchún. Shēngwù cháiyóu shì yòng zhíwùyóu, dòngwùyóu, fèiqì yóuzhī huò wéishēngwù yóuzhī wèi yuánliào, yǔ jiǎchún huò yǐchún jīng zhǐ zhuǎnhuà ér zhì chéng, qiángwén tí dào de B30,B20 shì zhǐ zài shíhuà cháiyóu hé shēngwù cháiyóu de hùnhé yóu zhōng, shēngwù cháiyóu zài gòng hùn wù zhòng de zhàn bǐ dádào 30%hé 20%. Quánqiú shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng zì 2009 nián hòu zēng sù fàng huǎn, tèbié shì 2014 nián yǐhòu, zēng sù fàng huǎn fúdù jiā dà.2017 Nián chǎnliàng yù gū wèi 2700 wàn dùn, xiāofèi liàng hé chǎnliàng biàndòng jīběn yīzhì. Quánqiú shēngwù cháiyóu xiāofèi liàng biànhuà cóng quánqiú shēngwù cháiyóu de chǎnliàng fēnbù lái kàn, ōuméng jiējìn 1000 wàn dùn, zhàn bǐ 36%; zhōngnán měizhōu, běiměi, yàzhōu jí dàyángzhōu jīběn yīzhì, chǎnliàng 500 wàn—600 wàn dùn, zhàn bǐ zài 20%zuǒyòu. Cóng quánqiú shēngwù cháiyóu de xiāofèi liàng fēnbù lái kàn, ōuméng zhànjùle bànbìjiāngshān, dádàole 1200 wàn dùn, zhàn bǐ 48%; zhōngnán měizhōu, běiměi, yàzhōu jí dàyángzhōu jīběn yīzhì,400 wàn—450 wàn dùn, zhàn bǐ zài 18%zuǒyòu. Yìndùníxīyà: Nèiyōu wàihuàn zhī xià, nèixū zēngzhǎng tísù zuòwéi zōnglǘ yóu de zhǔ chǎndì, yìndùníxīyà hé mǎláixīyà jūn yǐ zōnglǘ yóu zuòwéi zhì shēngwù cháiyóu de zhǔyào yuánliào, jīhū méiyǒu jìnkǒu, yǐ chūkǒu wéi zhǔ, yù gū 2019 nián yìndùníxīyà shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng wèi 650 wàn dùn, chūkǒu 110 wàn dùn, nèixū 540 wàn dùn; mǎláixīyà tǐ liàng xiāngduì jiào xiǎo, yù gū chǎnliàng wèi 150 wàn dùn, chūkǒu 65 wàn dùn, nèixū 85 wàn dùn. 2013—2014 Nián, yìndùníxīyà zhèngfǔ jiāng cháiyóu zhōng de shēngwù cháiyóu qiángzhì càn hùn bǐlì shè wèi 10%,2015 nián tígāo dào 15%,2016 nián zài tígāo dào 20%, dàn yīn zhǒngzhǒng yuányīn, lìrúqí guónèi chān duì shèshī quēfá, zhèngcè shíshī lìdù jiào ruò děng,2014—2017 nián shízhì càn hùn bǐlì bìng méiyǒu dádào qiángzhì càn hùn de yāoqiú. Rán'ér zhè yī qíngkuàng zì 2018 nián qǐ kai shǐ fāshēng gǎibiàn, yī fāngmiàn, yìndùníxīyà guónèi zōnglǘ yóu chǎnliàng dàfú zēngzhǎng, yuánliào kùcún yālì bùduàn jiā dà; lìng yī fāngmiàn, chūkǒu huánjìng chíxù èhuà,2019 nián ōuméng chóngxīn zhēngshōu duì yìndùníxīyà shēngwù cháiyóu de fǎnqīngxiāo guānshuì, qiě yīn huánjìng bǎohù wèntí, mǐ shíshī zōnglǘ yóu zhì shēngwù cháiyóu jìnlìng, ér měiguó zì 2017 nián qǐ duì yìndùníxīyà shēngwù cháiyóu kāishǐ zhēngshōu fǎn bǔtiē guānshuì. Zài nèiyōu wàihuàn de bèijǐng xià, yìndùníxīyà zhèngfǔ shìtú kuòdà shēngwù cháiyóu nèixū, zhèngcè shíshī lìdù jiāqiáng,2019 nián shíjì càn hùnlǜ tígāo zhì 20%, yùjì jiāng dádào B20 jìhuà de mùbiāo. Yìndùníxīyà zhèngfǔ jiāng zì 2020 nián 1 yuè 1 rì qǐ shíshī B30 jìhuà, yùjì 2020 nián shíjì càn hùnlǜ nénggòu dádào 25%—30%, jiāng dài lái 140 wàn—270 wàn dùn de zōnglǘ yóu xūqiú zēng liàng, bùguò chūkǒu yùjì jiāng jìxù xiàhuá, zōnglǘ yóu xūqiú jiǎn liàng zài 65 wàn dùn zuǒyòu. Zhěngtǐ ér yán, yìndùníxīyà B30 jìhuà de shíshī jiāng dài lái 75 wàn—205 wàn dùn zōnglǘ yóu xūqiú zēng liàng. Yìnní shēngwù cháiyóu shíjì yǔ qiángzhì tiānjiā bǐ mǎláixīyà: Chǎnliàng zēng sù jiào kuài, chǎnnéng huò gòuchéng “tiānhuābǎn” 2014 nián, mǎláixīyà zhèngfǔ zài quánguó fànwéi nèi tuīxíng B5 jìhuà,2015 nián tígāo wèi B7(shēngwù cháiyóu càn hùn bǐlì wèi 7%),2019 nián zài tígāo dào B10(shēngwù cháiyóu càn hùn bǐlì wèi 10%). Zài guónèi shíshī gāo bǔtiē de qíngkuàng xià, mǎláixīyà shēngwù cháiyóu shēngchǎn lìrùn liánghǎo, jìn jǐ nián shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng zēng sù wéichí zài 30%de shuǐpíng, bùguò xiàn jiēduàn mǎláixīyà shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnnéng zài 200 wàn dùn, shòu xiàn yú chǎnnéng yālì, yùjì 2020 nián shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng zài 180 wàn dùn, dài lái de zōnglǘ yóu xūqiú zēng liàng wèi 35 wàn dùn. Yǒu xiāoxī chēng mǎláixīyà zhèngfǔ nǐ yú 2020 nián niánchū tíqián shíshī B20 jìhuà, dàn rú qí guónèi chǎnnéng wúfǎ kuòdà, zé jǐn néng gǎibiàn shēngwù cháiyóu chūkǒu jí nèixū jiégòu, jí tígāo nèixū, jiǎnshǎo chūkǒu, duì zǒngtǐ shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng de shízhì yǐngxiǎng jiào xiǎo. Mǎláixīyà shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng, guónèi xiāofèi jí chūkǒu ōuméng: Nèixū zēngzhǎng chíhuǎn, màoyì bǎohù chíxù 2018 nián ōuméng shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng dádàole 1250 wàn dùn, xiāofèi liàng wèi 1400 wàn dùn, bùtóng yú yìndùníxīyà hé mǎláixīyà, zàishēngwù cháiyóu de guójì màoyì zhōng, ōuméng yǐ jìnkǒu wéi zhǔ,2018 nián jìnkǒu liàng dádào 300 wàn dùn, xiǎnzhù gāo yú qián jǐ nián, zhǔyào shi yīnwèi āgēntíng hé yìndùníxīyà de jìnkǒu liàng dàfú zēngjiā.2013 Nián 11 yuè 26 rì, ōuméng duì āgēntíng jí yìndùníxīyà de jìnkǒu shēngwù cháiyóu zhèngshì zhēngshōu wéiqí 5 nián de fǎnqīngxiāo guānshuì, dàn 5 nián qí wèi mǎn, āgēntíng jiù yú 2017 nián zài WTO shèngsù, yìndùníxīyà zé yú 2018 nián shèngsù, fǎnqīngxiāo shuì qǔxiāo shǐdé 2018 nián ōuméng shēngwù cháiyóu jìnkǒu liàng jù zēng. Ōuméng zhì shēngwù cháiyóu de yuánliào láiyuán fēngfù, yǐ cài zǐ yóu wéi zhǔ; qícì shì fèiqì shíyòng yóu, zōnglǘ yóu, dòuyóu děng, bùguò cài zǐ yóu zhì shēngwù cháiyóu chéngběn gāo yú zōnglǘ yóu hé dòuyóu, wèi bǎohù qí shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnyè, chángqí yǐlái, ōuméng duì āgēntíng, měiguó jí yìndùníxīyà shèzhìle yīdìng de guānshuì bìlěi. 2009 Nián 7 yuè, ōuméng duì měi jìnkǒu shēngwù cháiyóu zhèngshì shíshī wéiqí 5 nián de shuāng fǎn guānshuì,2015 nián zài bǎ qíxiàn yáncháng zhì 2020 nián 9 yuè, āgēntíng hé yìndùníxīyà suīrán zài WTO shèngsù, dàn 2018 nián duì ōuméng de chūkǒu liàng dà zēng shǐdé ōuméng bùdé bù jìxù cǎiqǔ cuòshī xiànzhì liǎng guó chūkǒu,2018 nián 12 yuè, ōuméng wěiyuánhuì jiànyì huīfù duì āgēntíng shēngwù cháiyóu de fǎn bǔtiē guānshuì, shuìlǜ dìng wèi 25%—33.4%, Hòu shuāngfāng jīngguò xiéshāng,2019 nián 2 yuè, ōuméng juédìng huòmiǎn 8 míng āgēntíng shēngwù cháiyóu shēngchǎn shāng, qí bèi yǔnxǔ chūkǒu shēngwù cháiyóu dào ōuméng ér bù jiǎonà guānshuì, zhǐyào tāmen ànzhào jìdìng de zuìdī jià chūshòu.2019 Nián 8 yuè, ōuméng zhèngshì duì yìndùníxīyà jìnkǒu shēngwù cháiyóu zhēngshōu 8%—18%de fǎn bǔtiē shuì, shìchǎng yùjì 12 yuè zhōngxún ōuméng jiāng juédìng shìfǒu chángqí duì yìndùníxīyà shū ōu shēngwù cháiyóu zhēngshōu fǎn bǔtiē shuì. Jìnnián lái ōuméng nèibù duì shēngwù cháiyóu de fǎ zhǎn chūxiànle yīxiē biànhuà, yīn shèjí liángshí jí huánbǎo wèntí, nǐ xiànzhì yǐ liáng shi zuòwù wéi zhǔ de shēngwù ránliào xiāofèi liàng, tígāo yǐ fēi liáng shi zuòwù wéi zhǔ de dì èr lèi shēngwù ránliào xiāofèi liàng, yāoqiú gè chéngyuán guó 2020 nián zài jiāotōng bùmén shǐyòng dì yī lèi shēngwù ránliào de bǐlì yào jiàng zhì 7%. Ōuméng kě zài shēng néngyuán zhǐlìng (REDII) gèng jìnyībù yāoqiú, jīyú liáng shi zuòwù de dì yī lèi shēngwù ránliào de càn hùn shàngxiàn yào cóng 2021 nián de 7%xiàjiàng dào 2030 nián de 3.8%, Jiāng dì èr lèi shēngwù ránliào de càn hùn xiàxiàn cóng 2021 nián de 1.5%Shàngdiào dào 2030 nián de 6.8%. Cóng lìnián ōuméng shēngwù cháiyóu de yuánliào jiégòu kěyǐ kàn chū, fèiqì shíyòng yóu, dòngwùyóu de xiāofèi liàng zhúnián zēngzhǎng, zhíwùyóu zé chūxiànle yīdìng de xiàhuá, wèilái zhè zhǒng qūshì hái jiāng yánxù. Ōuméng nǐ duì zōnglǘ yóu jī shēngwù cháiyóu shíshī jìnlìng, jiāng yú 2030 nián qián zhúbù tíng yòng zōnglǘ yóu zhì shēngwù cháiyóu, zhè jiāng zhíjiē yǐngxiǎng dào yòng yú shēngchǎn shēngwù cháiyóu de 250 wàn dùn zōnglǘ yóu jìnkǒu liàng, zài jiā shàng 2019 nián ōuméng chóngxīn duì yìndùníxīyà shēngwù cháiyóu zhēngshōu fǎnqīngxiāo shuì, jìnnián lái ōuméng yǔ yìndùníxīyà, mǎláixīyà màoyì jiūfēn bùduàn. Zhǎnwàng 2020 nián, yù gū ōuméng shēngwù cháiyóu nèixū bǎochí wěndìng, zēng liàng zài 30 wàn dùn. Jìnkǒu fāngmiàn, yīn ōuméng chóngxīn xiànzhì yìndùníxīyà jí āgēntíng jìnkǒu, yù gū jìnkǒu jiǎn liàng wèi 40 wàn dùn. Ōuméng shēngwù cháiyóu yuánliào qíngkuàng měiguó: Jìnkǒu kuàisù xiàhuá, nèixū zhúbù tígāo měiguó zhì shēngwù cháiyóu de yuánliào guǎngfàn, qízhōng dòuyóu zhàn liǎo jìn 60%yǐshàng, yù gū 2019 nián shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng jiāng dádào 600 wàn—650 wàn dùn. Jìnkǒu fāngmiàn, yǐwǎng měiguó shēngwù cháiyóu jìnkǒu zhǔyào láizì āgēntíng hé yìndùníxīyà, liǎng guójìnkǒu liàng zì 2013 nián xùnsù zēngzhǎng, zhídào 2017 nián měiguó shāngwù bù juédìng duì āgēntíng jí yìndùníxīyà de jìnkǒu shēngwù cháiyóu zhēngshōu fǎn bǔtiē shuì, xiànzhìle liǎng guó shēngwù cháiyóu jìnkǒu, zhìcǐ, měiguó de shēngwù cháiyóu jìnkǒu liàng kāishǐ xùnsù xiàhuá, cóng 2016 nián de 230 wàn dùn xiàhuá zhì 2018 nián de 55 wàn dùn. Měiguó duìyú nóngyè de fúchí lìdù jiào dà, gù duìyú shēngwù cháiyóu yě chūtáile xiāngyìng de gǔlì zhèngcè, yī fāngmiàn, zì 2010 nián qǐ měiguó huánjìng bǎohù shǔ shè dìng měinián shēngwù cháiyóu zuìdī shǐyòng liàng, lìrú 2011 nián wèi 8 yì jiālún,2018 nián wèi 21 yì jiālún,2019 nián wèi 24.3 Yì jiālún,2020 nián wèi 24.3 Yì jiālún, mùqián měiguó chǎnnéng zài 25.5 Yì jiālún, yuē 840 wàn dùn; lìng yī fāngmiàn, shēngwù cháiyóu yǒuzhe 1 měiyuán/jiālún de bǔtiē, hái yǒu shuìshōu dǐ miǎn de zhèngcè. 2020 Nián, zài zhèngcè bù biàn de qíngkuàng xià, āgēntíng hé yìndùníxīyà shēngwù cháiyóu jìnkǒu réng jiāng shòudào xiànzhì, yùjì měiguó shēngwù cháiyóu jìng jìnkǒu liàng yǔ 2019 nián chípíng, wéichí zài 20 wàn dùn de shuǐpíng, wèi dádào měiguó huánjìng bǎohù shǔ de zuìdī shǐyòng liàng biāozhǔn, qí guónèixūqiú hé chǎnliàng jiāng jìxù zēngjiā, yù gū zēng liàng zài 50 wàn—100 wàn dùn, yuánliào duān, zhíwùyóu zēng liàng 40 wàn—80 wàn dùn, qízhōng dòuyóu zēng liàng 25 wàn—55 wàn dùn. Měiguó shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng jí qí guónèi xiāofèi bāxī: Zì jǐ zìzú, chǎnliàng zhúbù zēngjiā bāxī zhì shēngwù cháiyóu zhǔyào yǐ dòuyóu wéi zhǔ, niú yóu wèi fǔ, dòuyóu zhàn bǐ zài 70%—80%, zhěngtǐ chǔyú zì jǐ zìzú de shìchǎng, jìn chūkǒu liàng jūn jiào xiǎo, yù gū 2019 nián chǎnliàng dádào 500 wàn dùn. Qí shēngwù cháiyóu zhèngcè wěnbù tuījìn,2008 nián niánchū shèzhì qiángzhì càn hùn biāozhǔn wèi 2%, xià bànnián tígāo dào 3%,2009 nián tígāo dào 4%,2010 nián tígāo dào 5%,2014 nián fēnbié wèi 7%,2016 nián tígāo dào 8%,2017 nián wèi 9%,2018 nián zé wèi 10%,2019 nián zài tígāo dào 11%. Yùjì 2020 nián bāxī shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng zēngzhǎng 35 wàn dùn zuǒyòu, dài lái de dòuyóu zēng liàng zài 20 wàn dùn zuǒyòu, niú yóu yuē 5 wàn dùn. Bāxī shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng jí qí guónèi xiāofèi āgēntíng: Jǔbùwéijiān, chūkǒu shǔguāng chū xiàn āgēntíng zhì shēngwù cháiyóu yě yǐ dòuyóu wéi zhǔ,2019 nián shēngwù cháiyóu chǎnliàng yù gū zài 220 wàn dùn, yuánliào hé shēngwù cháiyóu chūkǒu shuìlǜ de chāyì (yuánliào gāo, shēngwù cháiyóu dī), shǐdé āgēntíng zài shēngwù cháiyóu de guó jì màoyì zhōng bànyǎnzhe zhǔyào chūkǒu de juésè, jìnnián lái miàn duì ōuméng hé měiguó de màoyì bìlěi, āgēntíng kěwèi shì jǔbùwéijiān, bùguò xiàn jiēduàn qíngkuàng yǒu suǒ hào zhuǎn,2019 nián 2 yuè, ōuméng huòmiǎnle fúhé jìdìng zuìdī jià (dòuyóu jiàgé +shēngchǎn chéngběn) de āgēntíng 113 wàn dùn de shēngwù cháiyóu jìnkǒu liàng,2018 nián āgēntíng chūkǒu ōuméng shēngwù cháiyóu liáng zài 140 wàn dùn,2019 nián 8 yuè, měiguó jiāng āgēntíng de fǎn bǔtiē guānshuì cóng 72%diào zhì 10%, bùguò fǎnqīngxiāo guānshuì réng wèi qǔxiāo, wèi 75%, āgēntíng shēngwù cháiyóu duì měi chūkǒu chuāngkǒu réng wèi dǎkāi, yù gū 2019 nián āgēntíng shēngwù cháiyóu chūkǒu liàng zài 100 wàn dùn. Āgēntíng zuìzǎo de shēngwù cháiyóu zhèngcè shì 2006 nián de 26.093 Tiáokuǎn, jí 2010 nián 1 yuè dádào B5 de mùbiāo,2010 nián 2 yuè kāishǐ shíshī B7 jìhuà,2016 nián 4 yuè tígāo zhì B10.2017 Nián āgēntíng shíjì càn hùnlǜ jiù yǐjīng dádàole 9%yǐshàng, yùjì 2020 nián nèi xū jiāng jìxù bǎochí wěndìng, chūkǒu lüèwēi xiàhuá 10 wàn dùn, chǎnliàng jiàngdī 10 wàn dùn, dòuyóu jiǎn liàng zài 10 wàn dùn.

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　　3932/5000

　　Global production slows down, the EU remains the main production and sales area

　　Biofuels are divided into two categories: The first category refers to biofuels produced from food crops or vegetable oils, including biodiesel produced from vegetable oils and bioethanol produced from corn and sugarcane; the second category’s raw materials are mainly non-grain crops, namely Biodiesel produced from animal oil and waste edible oil, and cellulosic ethanol produced from waste such as straw, hay, wood chips, etc.

　　Biodiesel is made from vegetable oil, animal oil, waste grease or microbial grease as raw materials, and methanol or ethanol through ester conversion. The B30 and B20 mentioned above refer to the mixture of petrochemical diesel and biodiesel. The proportion in the blend reaches 30% and 20%.

　　The growth rate of global biodiesel production has slowed down since 2009, especially after 2014, the growth rate has slowed down. The 2017 output is estimated to be 27 million tons, and the consumption and output changes are basically the same.

　　Global biodiesel consumption changes

　　From the perspective of global biodiesel production distribution, the EU is close to 10 million tons, accounting for 36%; Central and South America, North America, Asia and Oceania are basically the same, with output of 5 million to 6 million tons, accounting for about 20%.

　　From the perspective of the distribution of global biodiesel consumption, the EU occupies half of the country, reaching 12 million tons, accounting for 48%; Central and South America, North America, Asia and Oceania are basically the same, accounting for 4 million to 4.5 million tons, accounting for 18% about.

　　Indonesia: Under internal and external troubles, domestic demand growth accelerates

　　As the main producing areas of palm oil, Indonesia and Malaysia both use palm oil as the main raw material for biodiesel production. There is almost no import, mainly for export. It is estimated that Indonesia’s biodiesel production in 2019 will be 6.5 million tons and export 1.1 million tons. 5.4 million tons; Malaysia is relatively small, with an estimated output of 1.5 million tons, 650,000 tons of exports, and 850,000 tons of domestic demand.

　　From 2013 to 2014, the Indonesian government set the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel in diesel to 10%, increased to 15% in 2015, and 20% in 2016. However, due to various reasons, such as the lack of domestic blending facilities, The implementation of policies is weak, etc. The actual blending ratio from 2014 to 2017 did not meet the mandatory blending requirements.

　　However, this situation has begun to change since 2018. On the one hand, Indonesia's domestic palm oil production has increased significantly, and the pressure on raw material inventory has continued to increase; on the other hand, the export environment has continued to deteriorate. In 2019, the EU re-imposed anti-dumping on Indonesian biodiesel Tariffs, and due to environmental protection issues, plans to implement a palm oil biodiesel ban, and the United States has imposed countervailing duties on Indonesian biodiesel since 2017. In the context of internal and external troubles, the Indonesian government is trying to expand domestic demand for biodiesel, and the policy implementation has been strengthened. The actual blending rate will increase to 20% in 2019, which is expected to reach the target of the B20 plan.

　　The Indonesian government will implement the B30 plan from January 1, 2020. It is estimated that the actual blending rate in 2020 will reach 25%-30%, which will bring about 1.4 million to 2.7 million tons of palm oil demand increase, but exports are expected to continue Declining, palm oil demand decreased by about 650,000 tons. Overall, the implementation of Indonesia's B30 plan will bring about an increase in demand for palm oil from 750,000 to 2.05 million tons.

　　The actual and mandatory addition ratio of biodiesel in Indonesia

　　Malaysia: Production growth rate is relatively fast, production capacity may constitute a "ceiling"

　　In 2014, the Malaysian government implemented the B5 plan nationwide. In 2015, it was increased to B7 (biodiesel blending ratio was 7%), and in 2019, it was increased to B10 (biodiesel blending ratio was 10%).

　　With the implementation of high domestic subsidies, Malaysia’s biodiesel production is profitable. In recent years, the growth rate of biodiesel production has remained at 30%. However, the current production capacity of Malaysia’s biodiesel is 2 million tons, which is limited by capacity pressure. In 2020, the production of biodiesel will be 1.8 million tons, which will increase the demand for palm oil by 350,000 tons.

　　It is reported that the Malaysian government intends to implement the B20 plan ahead of schedule in early 2020, but if its domestic production capacity cannot be expanded, it can only change the structure of biodiesel exports and domestic demand, that is, increase domestic demand and reduce exports, which will have little real impact on overall biodiesel production. .

　　Malaysia biodiesel production, domestic consumption and export

　　European Union: Domestic demand growth is slow, trade protection continues

　　In 2018, EU biodiesel production reached 12.5 million tons, and consumption was 14 million tons. Unlike Indonesia and Malaysia, EU mainly imports biodiesel in international trade of biodiesel. In 2018, the import volume reached 3 million tons, which is significantly higher. In previous years, it was mainly because of the substantial increase in imports from Argentina and Indonesia. On November 26, 2013, the European Union officially imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on imported biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia. However, before the five-year period expired, Argentina won the WTO lawsuit in 2017, and Indonesia won the lawsuit in 2018. Anti-dumping duties The cancellation caused a sharp increase in EU biodiesel imports in 2018.

　　The EU-made biodiesel has a rich source of raw materials, mainly rapeseed oil; followed by waste cooking oil, palm oil, soybean oil, etc. However, the cost of rapeseed oil biodiesel is higher than palm oil and soybean oil. In order to protect its biodiesel industry, For a long time, the European Union has imposed certain tariff barriers on Argentina, the United States and Indonesia.

　　In July 2009, the European Union officially implemented a five-year dual anti-tariff on imports of biodiesel from the United States. In 2015, the deadline was extended to September 2020. Although Argentina and Indonesia won the WTO lawsuits, they exported large volumes to the EU in 2018. The increase has forced the EU to continue to take measures to restrict exports between the two countries. In December 2018, the European Commission recommended to restore the countervailing tariffs on biodiesel from Argentina, with the tax rate set at 25%-33.4%. After negotiation between the two parties, in February 2019, The European Union decided to exempt eight Argentine biodiesel producers who are allowed to export biodiesel to the EU without paying tariffs, as long as they sell at the established lowest price. In August 2019, the European Union officially imposed a countervailing duty of 8%-18% on Indonesia's imports of biodiesel. The market expects that in mid-December the EU will decide whether to impose a countervailing duty on Indonesian biodiesel exports to Europe for a long time.

　　In recent years, there have been some changes in the development of biodiesel within the EU. Due to food and environmental issues, it is planned to limit the consumption of biofuels mainly from food crops and increase the consumption of second-class biofuels mainly from non-food crops. Require member states to reduce the proportion of Type 1 biofuels in the transportation sector to 7% in 2020. The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) further requires that the upper limit of the blending of the first type of biofuels based on food crops should be reduced from 7% in 2021 to 3.8% in 2030, and the lower limit of the second type of biofuels Increased from 1.5% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2030. It can be seen from the raw material structure of EU biodiesel over the years that the consumption of waste edible oil and animal oil has increased year by year, while vegetable oil has declined to a certain extent, and this trend will continue in the future.

　　The EU intends to impose a ban on palm oil-based biodiesel and will phase out palm oil-based biodiesel by 2030. This will directly affect 2.5 million tons of palm oil imports for biodiesel production, plus the EU in 2019 Anti-dumping duties are re-imposed on Indonesian biodiesel. In recent years, EU trade disputes with Indonesia and Malaysia have continued.

　　Looking forward to 2020, it is estimated that the EU's domestic demand for biodiesel will remain stable, with an increase of 300,000 tons. In terms of imports, due to the EU's renewed restrictions on imports from Indonesia and Argentina, the estimated import reduction is 400,000 tons.

　　EU biodiesel feedstock situation

　　The United States: Imports are declining rapidly, and domestic demand is gradually increasing

　　There are a wide range of raw materials for biodiesel made in the United States, of which soybean oil accounts for more than 60%. It is estimated that the production of biodiesel in 2019 will reach 6 million to 6.5 million tons. In terms of imports, US biodiesel imports in the past were mainly from Argentina and Indonesia. The imports of the two countries have grown rapidly since 2013. Until 2017, the US Department of Commerce decided to impose countervailing duties on imported biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia, restricting the two countries’ biodiesel. Imports. So far, US biodiesel imports have begun to decline rapidly, from 2.3 million tons in 2016 to 550,000 tons in 2018.

　　The U.S. supports agriculture more strongly, so it has also introduced corresponding incentive policies for biodiesel. On the one hand, since 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has set the minimum annual biodiesel usage, such as 800 million gallons in 2011, and 2018 Annually 2.1 billion gallons, 2.43 billion gallons in 2019, 2.43 billion gallons in 2020, the current US production capacity is 2.55 billion gallons, about 8.4 million tons; on the other hand, biodiesel has a subsidy of $1 per gallon and tax Credit policy.

　　In 2020, under the circumstance that the policy remains unchanged, imports of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia will still be restricted. It is estimated that the net imports of biodiesel in the United States will remain the same as in 2019 and remain at the level of 200,000 tons, which is the lowest level of the US Environmental Protection Agency According to the usage standard, its domestic demand and output will continue to increase, with an estimated increase of 500,000-1 million tons. On the raw material side, vegetable oil will increase by 400,000-800,000 tons, of which soybean oil will increase by 250,000-550,000 tons.

　　U.S. biodiesel production and domestic consumption

　　Brazil: self-sufficiency, gradually increasing production

　　Brazil-made biodiesel is mainly made of soybean oil, supplemented by tallow, and soybean oil accounts for 70%-80%. As a whole, it is in a self-sufficient market with small import and export volumes. The output is estimated to reach 5 million tons in 2019.

　　Its biodiesel policy is steadily advancing. The mandatory blending standard was set at 2% in early 2008, increased to 3% in the second half, increased to 4% in 2009, increased to 5% in 2010, 7% in 2014, and increased in 2016. To 8%, 9% in 2017, 10% in 2018, and 11% in 2019.

　　It is estimated that the production of biodiesel in Brazil will increase by about 350,000 tons in 2020, which will bring about 200,000 tons of soybean oil and about 50,000 tons of butter.

　　Brazil Biodiesel Production and Domestic Consumption

　　Argentina: Difficulty, the beginning of export dawn

　　Argentina-made biodiesel is also dominated by soybean oil. The output of biodiesel in 2019 is estimated to be 2.2 million tons. The difference in export tax rates between raw materials and biodiesel (high raw materials and low biodiesel) makes Argentina play a role in the international trade of biodiesel. The main role of exports. In recent years, facing the trade barriers of the EU and the United States, Argentina is struggling, but the situation has improved at this stage. In February 2019, the EU exempted Argentina that meets the established minimum price (soy oil price + production cost) The import volume of biodiesel was 1.13 million tons. In 2018, Argentina exported 1.4 million tons of biodiesel to the EU. In August 2019, the United States adjusted Argentina’s countervailing duty from 72% to 10%. However, the anti-dumping duties have not been cancelled. 75%, the export window of Argentine biodiesel to the United States has not yet been opened. It is estimated that the export volume of Argentine biodiesel in 2019 will be 1 million tons.

　　Argentina’s earliest biodiesel policy was the 26.093 clause in 2006, which means that the B5 target was reached in January 2010, the B7 plan was implemented in February 2010, and it was raised to B10 in April 2016. The actual blending rate in Argentina has already reached in 2017 Above 9%, domestic demand is expected to remain stable in 2020, with exports falling slightly by 100,000 tons, output by 100,000 tons, and soybean oil reduced by 100,000 tons.

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